The third scenario operates in a quite different kind of the world to the Adaptive and Fragmented Catchment.

The Parrett Catchment operates in a world of where the ascent of globalization has been progressively resisted and rejected. The expanding open world markets of the early 21st century have been replaced by a culture of protectionism and introspection among ‘liberal’ western democracies. This is a world in which the rich protect their borders, and attempt to confine poverty, conflict, environmental degradation, and deterioration of national resources to areas outside of those borders.

This process has been driven by a series of real and perceived crises in globalization: the widely felt economic ‘downside’ of exposing industry to the disciplines of free trade; the perceived ‘burden’ of hosting economic and environmental migrants; instability in world financial markets; the spread of international ‘terrorism’; as well as periodic fuel and food shortages resulting from widespread dependency on imports.

Under this pathway, the role of the nation state as an agent of change has been progressively re-asserted and established. There are new drives towards national “self-sufficency” and “self-determination” across the whole ambit of the sustainability. This is the old-world order re-visited. Localised action is governed by the imperatives of national strategic planning.

Like the adaptive catchment scenario the fortress catchment scenario is a positive vision of 2050, but it rests on an entirely different approach to managing for sustainability. It is a highly interventionist and centralist account of the future, one that places the nation state at the heart of catchment decision making. This is a world in which the government of the day offers unambiguous direction and clear leadership to local decision makers. Indeed, the UK’s progressive retreat from the disciplines of market liberalisation has been accompanied by the development of wide ranging and highly prescriptive strategies across the environmental, social and economic arenas.

Catchment planning is based on a “mosaic” approach, whereby different land uses are configured on a sub-regional basis to help meet national targets for the production of food, energy, leisure and shelter. Food targets, for instance, are driven by nutritional standards and the need to create a “five a day” farming system. This has the effect of transforming an otherwise ailing agricultural economy in the region, though such opportunities for production have to juggle with other priorities. For instance, a reinvigorated national approach to habitat and environmental protection effectively ring-fences off large areas of the Catchment as publicly desirable (and accessible) parkland, ones that have strict land management controls placed upon them. Urban development is also highly restricted.

The overriding principle is concentration and renewal, not expansion. Growth in renewables is steady, driven by the need to meet local energy ‘quotas’ Interventions in the Catchment designed to adapt to the effects of climate change are based on effective, but highly engineered and technological, solutions: dredging river channels; the raising of the riverbanks; the building of new drainage systems across the Catchment, and so forth.

The Fortress Catchment – Overview of Key Trends