There will be increased food demand in association with rising world populations, growing affluence and ageing populations. Many commentators and analysts have voiced concerns about the planet’s capacity to support global per capita consumption at the rates currently enjoyed by developed nations. The global demand for meat will be an interesting feature of this process, for as people get wealthier, they tend to eat more.

It is a matter of some debate whether agricultural markets will become increasingly liberalised over the next 50 years. A number of commentators have suggested that the future may be characterised by a renewed sense of economic protectionism, though the weight of opinion suggests this will not be so. If, as many have argued, UK markets become more ‘exposed’ the organisation of the agricultural economy may change dramatically. Some suggest this process would result in a “two-track” countryside. On the one hand, there will be growth in larger production units to exploit world markets and maintain competitive efficiency in areas where UK agriculture has a comparative advantage. This process of consolidation may result in the resurgence of some sectors of the agricultural economy, such as livestock farming, where assured products become an important guarantor of quality and perhaps a unique selling proposition abroad. At the same time, exposure to world markets will mean many medium and smaller-sized food producers will be faced with the prospect of going out of business or otherwise adapting their practices substantially to bend with prevailing consumer attitudes and tastes.

If farmers go out of business they will need to be progressively retrained and reintegrated into the economy in new ways. If farmers choose to adapt, new models of land-based production may emerge. For instance, the UK’s population, well versed in the sustainability issues surrounding food quality, animal welfare and biodiversity may drive the expansion of food markets that combine short supply chains with the production of public desirably environmental goods, such as biodiversity and tranquillity. In the UK, state-supported environmental stewardship schemes, as well as the wider mandates of cross-compliance, are arguably part of the transition towards this model. Indeed, under this assumption, the state will have entirely retreated from the agricultural economy by 2050.

In the UK as elsewhere, it is likely that will be shifts to new forms of food production in light of changing climatic patterns, such as viticulture, while vulnerability of the agricultural industry to environmental hazards may mean that experimentation and uptake of GM food production will be common place. The production of energy crops is likely to be a standard feature of UK countryside in 2050.