Catchment Futures - Living within environmental limits
Changing energy markets  

Sustained global economic growth, along with population increases in the developing world, will drive a nearly 50 percent increase in the demand for energy over the next 15 years. It has been suggested that over the past 15 years the consumption of energy increased at about 1.5% per year. Forecasts for the next 20 years expect energy consumption to grow by 2% per year at which rate current consumption of energy would double in only 36 years.

Conventional wisdom suggests that peak oil is likely to be reached over the next 50 years and that competition for energy will therefore increase between nations. It is suggested that global energy prices are likely to become increasingly unstable: periodic price rises alternating with collapses. Conflict in locations where available resources can be tapped is likely to be amplified further.

Most projections of the energy economy, but by no means all, suggest that fossil fuels are nonetheless likely to dominate. There will certainly be greater investment in oil and coal extraction techniques, and in technologies and techniques that can mitigate against their carbon emissions. Yet critical uncertainty over sources could result in a number of possible energy development pathways. There is likely to be an increased push for greater energy efficiency in the UK for it decreases reliance on foreign energy sources, and saves money. Drives toward national self-sufficiency may witness the propagation of nuclear energy programmes, and faster investment in ‘green’ alternatives: hydrogen, wind, wave, solar and biofuels.

scenario issues <<

population >
household structure >
global warming >
energy markets >
food markets >
mobility >
evidence base >
 
[ Site map ]
Next - Changing food markets >>
 
     
updated 12-Jul-2010 | All content © copyright, project partners & contributors