Between now and 2050 there will be substantial increases in global population with moderate growth in the UK. Birth rates will continue to fall in the UK but there will be significantly increased life expectancy owing to advances in health care provision and reinforced by scientific advances, such as in developmental biology.

Most estimates suggest that the UK will see a declining share of its total population in the 16-59 category. By 2031 the numbers of those aged between 60-74 is likely to rise by 50% and those over 75, by 70%. The percentage of pensioners is expected to range between 22% and 31%. By 2050 the number of those aged over 60 could double to at least 30% of the overall population. As one report suggests “the ageing of the UK population is a strong unfolding trend, close to a racing certainty”. However this trend may be partially offset by increased in-migration. Some suggest in-migration may push the total UK population over 70 million by 2050.

The social and economic implications of an ageing population are unclear. In the short term, there is likely to be a wave of “second-lifers”: those who benefit from increased life expectancy in retirement, whilst being supported by the state to conduct (largely) work-free lifestyles. But the idea of a ‘standard’ age of retirement will probably become meaningless over the course of time. It is likely that the state will increasingly incentivise ‘lifelong working’ because an ageing demographic profile reduces savings, impacts on investment and lowers tax returns. The economic burden of an ageing population may be mitigated by in-migration, a process which will service labour-shortages across the economy.

Medical care spending will change in line with these demographics, though those taking private health care insurance may rise as budgets are squeezed and provision is slim-lined. Within this context there is likely to be a concerted effort on the part of the state to encourage preventative action based around the idea of ‘active lifestyles’. New economic sectors are likely to open up that can capitalise on this social trend. In political, cultural and economic terms there will be an increasingly significant and well-organized grey lobby.